Parasite load and risk factors for poor outcome among children with visceral leishmaniasis. A cohort study in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, 2010-2011

Clinical and laboratory risk factors for death from visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are relatively known, but quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) might assess the role of parasite load in determining clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors, including parasite load in peripheral blood, for VL poor outcome among children. This prospective cohort study evaluated children aged ≤ 12 years old with VL diagnosis at three times: pre-treatment (T0), during treatment (T1) and post-treatment (T2). Forty-eight patients were included and 16 (33.3%) met the criteria for poor outcome. Age ≤ 12 months [relative risk (RR) 3.51; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.89-6.52], tachydyspnoea (RR 3.46; 95% CI 2.19-5.47), bacterial infection (RR 3.08; 95% CI 1.27-7.48), liver enlargement (RR 3.00; 95% CI 1.44-6.23) and low serum albumin (RR 7.00; 95% CI 1.80-27.24) were identified as risk factors. qPCR was positive in all patients at T0 and the parasite DNA was undetectable in 76.1% of them at T1 and in 90.7% at T2. There was no statistical association between parasite load at T0 and poor outcome.